NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Take the Over in Titans-Bears; fade Bo Nix, Broncos

NFL Week 1 is here, guys. This is legitimately the best time of year for fans and bettors.

With so much live action for us to finally put our dollars behind, you might be overwhelmed deciding what to wager. 

That’s where I come in.

Check out my best bets for NFL Week 1, along with a 6-point teaser that I like.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, SEPT. 8

Titans @ Bears (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

As much as I like the Bears’ outlook this season, I can’t get involved here with a rookie quarterback in his first start. I’m not a bettor who wagers on trends, but it is mildly interesting that QBs drafted No. 1 overall are 0-14-1 in the first start since 2002. 

Yes, getting drafted first means you’re going to a terrible team, and the Bears won seven games last year and took Caleb Williams with Carolina’s pick. Still, we haven’t seen a pick favored by this much in his first career start this century! It was -4.5 this summer, but influential money has pushed it down to -3.5, while the public continues to hammer the Bears. 

The smart move is probably to bet on points. The Titans’ new-look offense will be led by Brian Callahan, who comes from Cincinnati where the Bengals went heavy on three-wideout looks. I’d expect each QB to throw 25 to 30 times, and we should see the number soar over the total.

PICK: Over 44 points scored by both teams combined

Vikings @ Giants (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

This opened at a pick ‘em, and the money has been on the Vikings, with the line going as high as Minnesota -2. 

The Giants come into the game with numerous questions about the offensive line, the quarterback and the skill position players — especially since they’re missing Saquon Barkley. The secondary is among the worst in the league, despite signing Stephon Gilmore. About the only thing Brian Daboll has going for him is that he’s 6-0 against defenses led by Brian Flores. And Daboll has taken over play-calling duties, likely because he knows jobs are on the line.

The Vikings’ offensive line is terrific, and it’ll have to be because the Giants pass rush is going to be excellent. And Dexter Lawrence has given Minnesota center Garrett Bradbury fits in the past. This feels like an ugly game with two average (or below average) quarterbacks. 

It will probably be low scoring, despite two offensive masterminds calling plays. 

PICK: Vikings (-122) moneyline to win outright

Panthers @ Saints (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

I said it before, but I’ll say it again: I’m not a trend bettor. 

But it’s difficult to ignore this trend: Divisional underdogs in Week 1 have been fantastic bets over the last 10 plus years.

The Panthers had a much better offseason than the Saints, upgrading at WR and on the offensive line. The worst offense in the NFL also got a new leader in head coach Dave Canales, who comes from Tampa where he saved Baker Mayfield’s career. The last seven meetings between these two have stayed under the total, and here’s another game that features two QBs who are below average. So sure, I’ll take more than a field goal here.

PICK: Panthers (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points, or win outright 

Jaguars @ Dolphins (1 p.m., CBS)

The only thing that can slow down this shootout is Mother Nature. And various weather reports predict rain and wind. 

But isn’t that every weekend in Florida? 

Both teams have new defensive coordinators. Both teams have weak secondaries, and Jalen Ramsey might not play for the Dolphins. As much as everyone is down on Jacksonville, the Jaguars were 8-3 last year with wins over the Bills and Texans before a late-season collapse ruined their playoff chances. 

Often not discussed is the fact that Trevor Lawrence wasn’t healthy. Expect a high-octane Jacksonville offense this year. This feels like 31-28 or something in that range.

PICK: Over 49 points scored by both teams combined

Broncos @ Seahawks (4:05 p.m., CBS)

Seattle was my first bet back in August when the Broncos named Bo Nix their starter. 

With this game, we get a rookie going into Lumen Field, not knowing what to expect against a Seattle defense with a new head coach. 

Yeah, no.

Last year, Mike Macdonald was the DC in Baltimore and faced a rookie in Week 1 with C.J. Stroud. The Texans couldn’t move the ball. The same might happen to Nix because Macdonald does a terrific job of mixing up blitzes and looks on the back end. This was at -5 and professional money has pushed it up to -6.

PICK: Seahawks (-6) to win by more than 6 points

6-Point Teaser

Teasers were extremely profitable in this space last year when we went through the key numbers of 3 and 7, so let’s dive into the lines I’m teasing in Week 1.

Packers +2 to +8
Bengals -8.5 to -2.5
Bills from -6.5 to -.5

I feel good about the Packers getting more than a touchdown in Brazil, as the Eagles secondary will have at least three new starters, including one or two rookies at cornerback. Meanwhile, the Packers defense has a new coordinator, and the scheme change could take a few weeks to sharpen. The Over is worth a look, too.

The Bengals face the worst team in the league, but I’m only comfortable teasing this down with the uncertainty of Ja’Marr Chase playing. The Patriots want a low-scoring game, as they don’t have an offense capable of rallying with a career backup QB and the worst skill position players in the league.

The Bills are tricky because the defense will have several new faces at LB and in the secondary, and could get picked apart by Kyler Murray. Buffalo’s offense will be heavy, and it may not be as vertical and explosive as in years past.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. Follow him @jasonrmcintyre.

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