2024 NFL Week 14 Best Bets: Fade Jets, back Chiefs

For the second week in a row, I’m backing three favorites.

What could possibly go wrong?

Hopefully, for our sake — and for the sake of our wallets — everything will go right.

Let’s dive into my best bets for NFL Week 14.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, DEC. 8

Jets @ Dolphins (1 p.m., CBS)

As a fan of the Jets for over three decades, I try not to bet on them or against them because emotions often get in the way. 

Not this time. 

On Friday, the Jets announced that linebacker C.J. Mosley is headed to IR, and Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner are doubtful to play Sunday. 

The Jets had that painful 26-21 loss to the Seahawks. In that game, the Jets were up 21-7 and Aaron Rodgers missed a wide open Garrett Wilson to go up three touchdowns. And then, on the next play, he threw a 92-yard pick-six. 

The Jets have no shot at the playoffs. Mathematically, they’re on life support, but everyone in that locker room knows the season is over.

So now you have a post-Thanksgiving trip to Florida, where the Dolphins are coming off extra rest having played last Thursday, and they’re healthy and primed to run down Denver for the final wild-card spot. 

Mike McDaniel has failed miserably as a head coach facing superior teams. He’s 1-15 against teams over .500. But when he steps down in competition? The Dolphins often roll, handling bottom-feeders like the Raiders and Patriots with ease.

The Jets, much to my chagrin, are bottom-feeders.

PICK: Miami (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points

Panthers @ Eagles (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Eagles might be the best team in the NFL right now. 

They’re the best running team in the NFL, and that will be a terrible matchup for the Panthers. Carolina is the only team in the NFL to give up 2,000 rushing yards (166 per game, which is also worst in the league).

Now, you could argue that the Panthers of the last few weeks aren’t the dumpster fire from earlier this season. They stunned the Saints, beat the Giants in OT and suffered close losses to the Chiefs and Buccaneers (OT). But three of those games were at home and the other was in Germany.

I have mild concern for the Eagles covering this big number because it’s a sandwich game. Last week, they had a huge showdown in Baltimore, and next week, they’ve got a massive game vs. the Steelers to establish supremacy in Pennsylvania. 

It would be easy to overlook the Panthers, just as they did the Browns (20-16 win, no cover) and Jaguars 28-23 (no cover). Both were at home.

I expect the Eagles to have a big lead in the third quarter and then rest the starters much of the fourth quarter — which adds to the risky nature of this bet. 

But even the Eagles’ backups should be able to run all over this rotten Panthers defense.

PICK: Eagles (-12.5) to win by more than 12.5 points

Chargers @ Chiefs (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)

Going against the great Jim Harbaugh two weeks in a row isn’t smart, but this is simply an injury play. 

That’s what I said last week! 

But hear me out.

J.K. Dobbins on IR greatly diminishes the ground game, and the passing game is damaged, with rookie standout Ladd McConkey not practicing much of the week. If he’s out, expect the Chiefs to play man defense, stack the box and dare Justin Herbert to beat them with his depleted receiving group.

That’s what the Falcons nearly did last week, holding the Chargers to 187 yards of offense and preventing them from crossing midfield in the second half. But Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions in L.A. territory, and it was a painful defeat.

Patrick Mahomes won’t do that. 

The Chiefs haven’t covered in six straight games, and they were seven-point favorites on the road at SoFi earlier this season. I’ve argued the Chiefs aren’t a great team all season, but they just keep winning — or maybe we should call it surviving.

Sunday night, they should be able to get margin and secure a victory, locking up yet another division title for Reid and Mahomes.

PICK: Chiefs (-4) to win by more than 4 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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